<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></title><description><![CDATA[The fusion of humanness, spirituality, and AI.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KmRw!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffac1e125-538c-48a6-988e-73dfd6435398_640x640.png</url><title>Mark Strefford</title><link>https://www.markstrefford.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 23:27:02 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.markstrefford.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[markstrefford@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[markstrefford@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[markstrefford@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[markstrefford@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[They Didn’t Disappear]]></title><description><![CDATA[The entire professional world was built around doing more. The question was never &#8220;what should we build?&#8221; It was &#8220;can you deliver it?&#8221;. That era is ending.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/they-didnt-disappear</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/they-didnt-disappear</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 10:32:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic" width="1200" height="630" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1t6U!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5315c93b-42e0-470c-92f1-10d735c91629_1200x630.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="pullquote"><p style="text-align: justify;">I'm Mark Strefford. I run <a href="https://reimagined.industries">Reimagined Industries</a>, a AI-native firm in Manchester. You might have found me through LinkedIn, Instagram, or someone sharing one of these posts. I write about what happens when AI agents make real decisions, why most enterprise AI projects fail to deliver what they promise, what it takes to build a company with two people and AI, and what all of this means for the actual humans involved.</p></div><p style="text-align: justify;">For most of our careers, we got rewarded for doing.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Doing more. Doing faster. Doing what was asked, reliably, at scale.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">The entire professional world was built around it: job specs, KPIs, billable hours, utilisation rates. The question was never &#8220;what should we build?&#8221; It was &#8220;can you deliver it?&#8221;</p><p style="text-align: justify;">That era is ending.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Not because doing doesn&#8217;t matter. But because AI is becoming exceptionally good at it. The doing is being handled.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Which means the thing that was always undervalued, the creative thinking, the reframing, the &#8220;what if we approached this completely differently?&#8221; suddenly becomes the most valuable contribution in the room.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">We&#8217;re moving from a world that rewarded reliable execution to one that rewards original thinking.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">And that&#8217;s a problem for a lot of organisations. Because they spent decades building cultures that systematically trained creativity out of people. Standardise. Comply. Follow the process.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Now they need the opposite. And they&#8217;re looking around wondering where all the creative thinkers went.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">They didn&#8217;t disappear. They just stopped volunteering ideas that nobody wanted to hear.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[AI Gurus are bad for your health]]></title><description><![CDATA[And why 'just use AI better' is the new 'just stop smoking']]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/ai-gurus-are-bad-for-your-health</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/ai-gurus-are-bad-for-your-health</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2026 10:01:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dFLp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F690a537f-ac26-4724-8fae-bcdb62af4543_1536x1024.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dFLp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F690a537f-ac26-4724-8fae-bcdb62af4543_1536x1024.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dFLp!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F690a537f-ac26-4724-8fae-bcdb62af4543_1536x1024.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dFLp!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F690a537f-ac26-4724-8fae-bcdb62af4543_1536x1024.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dFLp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F690a537f-ac26-4724-8fae-bcdb62af4543_1536x1024.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dFLp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F690a537f-ac26-4724-8fae-bcdb62af4543_1536x1024.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dFLp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F690a537f-ac26-4724-8fae-bcdb62af4543_1536x1024.heic" width="1456" height="971" 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class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><p><em>I write about what happens when AI meets the real world - the operating models, the people, and the messy bit in between. I'm Mark Strefford, founder of Reimagined Industries, and I've spent 20 years delivering technology-led transformation into organisations ranging from startups to Saudi's NEOM. If you're wondering why this is in your inbox, you probably signed up after one of my LinkedIn posts.</em></p><div><hr></div><p>I smoked for years. And the one thing every non-smoker loved to tell me was &#8220;just stop smoking.&#8221; As if the thought had never occurred to me. As if the reason I hadn&#8217;t stopped was a lack of information.</p><p>Nobody in the history of mankind has ever calmed down from being told to calm down. And nobody has ever transformed how their company works because someone on a stage told them to &#8220;just use AI better.&#8221;</p><p>The AI guru circuit runs on this. Get ROI. Adopt faster. Be more strategic. It sounds helpful. It&#8217;s the corporate equivalent of &#8220;just eat less&#8221; said to someone who stress-eats every night after putting the kids to bed. Well meaning, completely substanceless.</p><p>The reasons people struggle with AI aren&#8217;t informational. They&#8217;re cultural, psychological, deeply human. People aren&#8217;t slow because they haven&#8217;t read the right LinkedIn post. They&#8217;re slow because this stuff makes them vulnerable in ways they can barely articulate.</p><p>I think most of us, whether we say it out loud or not, have looked at the press and wondered how long we&#8217;ll have jobs for. That&#8217;s not a question you answer with a webinar about prompt engineering.</p><p>Predictability has been hardwired into working life for decades. You knew roughly what your job looked like next year, roughly what your industry looked like in five. The internet changed things, mobile changed things again, but neither happened overnight. You had years to figure out whether you needed a website, years to decide whether your business needed an app. AI doesn&#8217;t give you years. And when the pace of change outstrips someone&#8217;s ability to process it, telling them to speed up isn&#8217;t strategy. It&#8217;s cruelty dressed up as advice.</p><p>ChatGPT has hundreds of millions of users, yet despite running an AI business, most of my close family and friends either treat it as a better Google or haven&#8217;t touched it at all. The gap between what&#8217;s happening at the frontier and what&#8217;s happening in most people&#8217;s actual lives is enormous. The gurus are speaking from one side of that gap to people standing on the other, and wondering why nobody moves.</p><p>Some people move fast with change. Some move slow. Neither is wrong. But telling someone on the slow side to &#8220;just adopt AI&#8221; is like telling someone who&#8217;s never run a mile to just run a marathon. The destination might be right. The advice is useless.</p><p>AI adoption is about leadership. It&#8217;s about change. And change, for most of us, is genuinely hard.</p><p>It&#8217;s why in my projects I spend as much time with the AI users as I do with the board and the dev team. I&#8217;ve been having conversations about &#8220;will AI take my job&#8221; with front line staff since 2017. And I&#8217;ve delivered the commercial benefit while helping people feel enthralled about using new tech, getting rid of the drudgery that nobody wanted to do in the first place.</p><p>Both are true. You can transform the business and bring the people with you. But it takes understanding where the resistance actually lives, which is almost never where the guru thinks it is.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[I just ran a 70B parameter model on a single 8GB consumer GPU. But that's not all...]]></title><description><![CDATA[AirLLM, the library that makes it possible hadn't been updated in 3 years.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/i-just-ran-a-70b-parameter-model</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/i-just-ran-a-70b-parameter-model</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2026 14:03:15 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CnUp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5c6dfed-2d3a-4eb1-8299-23dae2fb5dc1_1280x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CnUp!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5c6dfed-2d3a-4eb1-8299-23dae2fb5dc1_1280x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CnUp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5c6dfed-2d3a-4eb1-8299-23dae2fb5dc1_1280x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CnUp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5c6dfed-2d3a-4eb1-8299-23dae2fb5dc1_1280x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" 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y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><a href="https://github.com/markstrefford/airllm">AirLLM</a>, the library that makes it possible hadn't been updated in 3 years. Six breaking changes, renamed APIs, a dimension-slicing bug buried in the inference code. It would have taken days to fix. <br><br>I handed the repo to Claude Code. An hour later, it had fixed everything, and then it wrote the article below explaining exactly how.<br><br>This is what human-directed AI engineering looks like.</p><div><hr></div><p>I&#8217;ve been working with <a href="https://github.com/lyogavin/airllm">AirLLM</a>, an open-source library that lets you run massive language models on consumer hardware by loading one layer at a time into GPU memory. The idea is brilliant &#8212; instead of needing 40GB+ VRAM for a 70B model, you stream each of the 80+ transformer layers through your GPU sequentially.</p><p>Problem: the library hadn&#8217;t been updated since mid-2024, and the Python ML ecosystem had moved on. Here&#8217;s what broke and how I fixed it.</p><div><hr></div><h3>1. Optional dependency gatekeeping the entire library</h3><p>optimum.bettertransformer was imported unconditionally at the top of the module. If you didn&#8217;t have it installed, you couldn&#8217;t even from airllm import AutoModel. The fix: wrap it in a try/except and track availability with a flag, since BetterTransformer is actually deprecated in favour of PyTorch&#8217;s native SDPA attention anyway.</p><div><hr></div><h3>2. Missing class attribute breaks generation pipeline</h3><p>Transformers 5.x added a _is_stateful property check inside GenerationMixin._supports_default_dynamic_cache(). AirLLM&#8217;s base model class inherits from GenerationMixin but never defined this attribute. One line fix: _is_stateful = False on the class. Small change, total showstopper without it.</p><div><hr></div><h3>3. KV cache API completely changed</h3><p>The old transformers used plain Python tuples for past key values &#8212; you could do past_key_values[layer_idx] to get (key, value)for a layer. Transformers 5.x replaced this with a DynamicCache object that isn&#8217;t subscriptable. The code had multiple places indexing into past_key_values as if it were a list of tuples. Fix: detect DynamicCache instances and use .get_seq_length() instead, and neutralise the cache in the forward pass since AirLLM&#8217;s layer-by-layer approach doesn&#8217;t benefit from it.</p><div><hr></div><h3>4. Quantization loading API was renamed and restructured</h3><p>The bitsandbytes integration in transformers went through a major refactor:</p><ul><li><p>check_quantized_param() &#8594; param_needs_quantization()</p></li><li><p>create_quantized_param() &#8594; removed entirely</p></li><li><p>update_torch_dtype() &#8594; update_dtype()</p></li></ul><p>The old create_quantized_param handled loading pre-quantized 4-bit weights. The new API has get_quantize_ops().convert(), but that&#8217;s designed for quantizing float weights from scratch &#8212; it fails on already-quantized uint8 data with <em>&#8220;Blockwise 4bit quantization only supports 16/32-bit floats, but got torch.uint8&#8221;</em>.</p><p>The fix was to bypass the new quantization pipeline entirely for pre-quantized weights: reconstruct bnb.functional.QuantStatefrom the stored metadata tensors, create Params4bit directly with bnb_quantized=True, and set the weight on the module manually (avoiding accelerate&#8217;s set_module_tensor_to_device which would strip the bnb_quantized flag and trigger re-quantization).</p><div><hr></div><h3>5. Decoder layers no longer return tuples</h3><p>This was the subtlest bug. In older transformers, LlamaDecoderLayer.forward() returned a tuple (hidden_states, ...). The code did layer(seq, **kwargs)[0] to extract hidden states.</p><p>In transformers 5.x, it returns a plain tensor. So [0] was indexing dimension 0 of the tensor itself &#8212; silently slicing off the batch dimension. The model would process layer 0 fine with shape [1, 9, 8192], then layer 1 would receive [9, 8192], and the rotary embedding would fail with a cryptic dimension mismatch: <em>&#8220;size of tensor a (64) must match size of tensor b (128)&#8221;</em>. The 64 came from the head dimension being miscomputed after the batch dim was dropped.</p><p>Fix: check isinstance(result, torch.Tensor) before indexing.</p><div><hr></div><h3>6. Rotary embeddings moved out of attention layers</h3><p>Transformers 5.x moved rotary position embedding computation out of individual attention layers. Instead of each layer computing its own cos/sin from position_ids, a shared rotary_emb module on the model produces position_embeddings that get passed through. AirLLM was passing position_ids to each layer but not position_embeddings, resulting in None being unpacked as cos, sin = position_embeddings.</p><p>Fix: grab the model&#8217;s rotary_emb module and compute position_embeddings dynamically for each layer call with the correct position IDs for the current sequence slice.</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>End result:</strong> Llama 3.1 70B (4-bit quantized) running inference on a single RTX 3070 with 8GB VRAM. 83 layers streamed through in ~36 seconds. All from a pip install and a few hundred lines of compatibility fixes.</p><p>The PR is up on the original repo: <a href="https://github.com/lyogavin/airllm">https://github.com/lyogavin/airllm</a></p><p>Sometimes the hardest part of open source isn&#8217;t writing new features &#8212; it&#8217;s keeping things running as the ecosystem evolves underneath you.</p><p>#MachineLearning #LLM #OpenSource #Python #DeepLearning #GPU #Llama</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Designing Friction-Lite Workflows Without Burning the Business Down]]></title><description><![CDATA[This is not &#8220;switch everything off and start again&#8221;. It&#8217;s a deliberate programme to lower internal friction and become legible to the external agents that will decide where demand flows.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/designing-friction-lite-workflows</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/designing-friction-lite-workflows</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2025 09:17:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic" width="1280" height="720" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vyWZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8047da15-2298-426d-bce3-73c214f6f59e_1280x720.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2><strong>Simple is harder than complex. That is why most people don&#8217;t try.</strong></h2><p>We designed our current operating models for people. Why? Because humans are incredible at handling <strong>ambiguity</strong>.</p><p>When a process breaks, or a rule is vague, a human uses intuition to &#8220;make it work.&#8221; We rely on that human glue to hold the enterprise together.</p><p>In the human era, this was adaptability. In the agentic era, it is <strong>structural rot</strong>.</p><p>Agents don&#8217;t improvise. They don&#8217;t do &#8220;glue.&#8221; If your process relies on a human to &#8220;just figure it out,&#8221; an agent will simply halt.</p><p><strong>The Fix:</strong> You don&#8217;t need more complex software. You need <strong>Radical Subtraction</strong>.</p><div class="pullquote"><p>You need to strip away the ambiguity, the &#8220;gravy&#8221;, to reveal the clean logic underneath. </p><p>This makes you faster <em>today </em>and agent-ready <em>tomorrow</em>.</p></div><p><strong>In Part 4 (The Conclusion), I break down:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Why &#8220;Human Glue&#8221; is the enemy of scale.</p></li><li><p>The 3-step pattern to simplify workflows before you automate them.</p></li><li><p>How to stop buying &#8220;Performance Theatre&#8221; and start building leverage.</p></li></ul><p><strong>A challenge for this week:</strong> Go back to the workflow you mapped in Part 1. Apply the &#8220;No Human&#8221; constraint.</p><p>If you couldn&#8217;t rely on a person to interpret the data or smooth the handoff, what would break?</p><p>If the answer is &#8220;Everything,&#8221; <strong>don&#8217;t buy more software.</strong> You have a structural problem, not a tooling problem.</p><p>This is exactly where the Red Pen helps.</p><p>I&#8217;m opening a few spots for reviews to help you identify the &#8220;gravy&#8221; you need to cut so you <em>can</em> be ready.</p><p><strong>Hit reply</strong> (or DM me) to grab a slot.</p><div><hr></div><h1><strong>Designing Friction-Lite Workflows Without Burning the Business Down</strong></h1><p><strong>This is not &#8220;switch everything off and start again&#8221;. It&#8217;s a deliberate programme to lower internal friction and become legible to the external agents that will decide where demand flows.</strong></p><p>When people hear &#8220;agentic economy&#8221; or &#8220;post-firm enterprise&#8221;, they often jump to one of two extremes:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Utopia:</strong> we&#8217;ll replace everything with agents and self-optimising workflows.</p></li><li><p><strong>Freeze:</strong> it sounds risky, so we&#8217;ll wait until the tech is &#8220;proven&#8221;.</p></li></ol><p>Both are ways of avoiding the real work.</p><p>The real work sits in the middle:</p><ul><li><p>running the business you have today,</p></li><li><p>while deliberately redesigning it so that internal friction drops,</p></li><li><p>and both <strong>internal agents</strong> and <strong>external agents</strong> can genuinely do useful work.</p></li></ul><p>Because the next generation of &#8220;work operating systems&#8221; won&#8217;t just sit inside your four walls. They will sit:</p><ul><li><p>on your customer&#8217;s device,</p></li><li><p>in your partner&#8217;s stack,</p></li><li><p>in neutral platforms that broker demand between buyers and suppliers.</p></li></ul><p>If your workflows are opaque, brittle, or bespoke, those agents simply won&#8217;t choose you.</p><h2><strong>Start with friction, not with tools</strong></h2><p>Most transformation programmes still start with tools:</p><ul><li><p>&#8220;We&#8217;re implementing a new case management platform.&#8221;</p></li><li><p>&#8220;We&#8217;re rolling out a new CRM with AI built in.&#8221;</p></li><li><p>&#8220;We&#8217;re adding agents on top of our existing systems.&#8221;</p></li></ul><p>The assumption is &#8220;If we deploy the right tools, friction will fall.&#8221;</p><p>In practice, you usually get:</p><ul><li><p>the same process,</p></li><li><p>with slightly nicer screens,</p></li><li><p>and a new layer of configuration to maintain.</p></li></ul><p>Instead, start by asking:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>&#8220;Where does friction actually live in this workflow, for us and for the outside world?&#8221;</p></div><p>Look for:</p><ul><li><p>steps where work bounces between teams,</p></li><li><p>approvals where nobody remembers why they exist,</p></li><li><p>data re-entry, copy-paste, and reconciliation,</p></li><li><p>&#8220;manual checks&#8221; that rarely find anything,</p></li><li><p>exceptions that account for 80% of the effort,</p></li><li><p>external touchpoints where customers or partners have to phone, email, or chase.</p></li></ul><p>These are the places where the cost of transactions explodes, and where external agents will judge you as &#8220;high friction&#8221;.</p><h2><strong>Design principles for friction-lite workflows</strong></h2><p>You don&#8217;t need a new operating model theory. You need a small set of principles you apply consistently.</p><p>Here are five:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Single accountable owner per outcome</strong><br>One person or team is clearly accountable for the end-to-end outcome, not just their step.</p></li><li><p><strong>Minimum viable approvals</strong><br>Approvals exist for clear, articulated risks &#8211; and are designed to be fast by default.</p></li><li><p><strong>Event-first visibility</strong><br>Key state changes emit events that humans, internal agents, and external agents can subscribe to &#8211; rather than being buried in logs or spreadsheets.</p></li><li><p><strong>Composable capabilities</strong><br>Actions (create order, update status, schedule appointment, issue refund) are exposed as capabilities that can be called by different channels and agents.</p></li><li><p><strong>Externally legible contracts</strong><br>Where it makes sense, the rules (SLAs, constraints, pricing, eligibility) are machine-readable, so an external agent can understand what you offer without scraping PDFs.</p></li></ol><p>If a workflow doesn&#8217;t respect these principles, agents will struggle &#8211; and humans will keep firefighting.</p><h2><strong>A practical pattern you can apply tomorrow</strong></h2><p>Take one high-value workflow and run this pattern.</p><h3><strong>Step 1: Define the &#8220;minimum viable journey&#8221;</strong></h3><p>Write down, in plain language:</p><ul><li><p>the trigger that starts the journey (often external),</p></li><li><p>the outcome that counts as &#8220;done&#8221;,</p></li><li><p>the non-negotiable checks or controls.</p></li></ul><p>Strip everything else out for now.</p><p>If you can&#8217;t write this on half a page, the workflow is already too bloated.</p><p>Then add a second line:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>&#8220;If a customer&#8217;s agent wanted to complete this journey end-to-end, what would it need to see and do?&#8221;</p></div><p>This forces you to think beyond internal steps.</p><h3><strong>Step 2: Map current reality &#8211; including external touchpoints</strong></h3><p>Now map the real-world steps and systems:</p><ul><li><p>where the work actually starts,</p></li><li><p>every handoff,</p></li><li><p>every approval,</p></li><li><p>every system touched,</p></li><li><p>every point where a human outside your firm has to intervene (call, email, portal, form).</p></li></ul><p>Mark each step with one of three labels:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Core</strong> &#8211; essential to reaching the outcome safely.</p></li><li><p><strong>Guardrail</strong> &#8211; risk/control that genuinely matters.</p></li><li><p><strong>Gravy</strong> &#8211; habit, legacy, or local optimisation.</p></li></ul><p>Be honest. A lot more will fall into &#8220;gravy&#8221; than people expect.</p><h3><strong>Step 3: Design the friction-lite version</strong></h3><p>Redesign the flow with three constraints:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Keep all Core and necessary Guardrail steps.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Remove as much Gravy as you can.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Express the flow as states and capabilities</strong>, not just tasks.</p></li></ol><p>For example:</p><ul><li><p>States: </p><p><code>New, Eligibility Checked, Approved, Scheduled, In Progress, Completed, Closed</code></p></li><li><p>Capabilities: </p><p><code>check_eligibility, approve_case, schedule_slot, update_status, notify_customer, issue_refund</code></p></li></ul><p>Now ask:</p><ul><li><p>Which of these capabilities should internal agents be allowed to call?</p></li><li><p>Which should external agents be allowed to call, under what contracts (rate limits, auth, SLAs)?</p></li></ul><p>You&#8217;ve just drawn the outline of an operating model that is legible to both.</p><h3><strong>Step 4: Implement in slices, not shocks</strong></h3><p>Don&#8217;t announce a big-bang change.</p><p>Instead:</p><ul><li><p>pick one segment of the journey (e.g. from <code>New</code> to <code>Approved</code>),</p></li><li><p>implement the friction-lite version there,</p></li><li><p>ensure events and capabilities are surfaced clearly,</p></li><li><p>pilot with a narrow set of customers, channels, or partners,</p></li><li><p>then expand to the next segment.</p></li></ul><div class="pullquote"><p>The business keeps running. Risk is contained. Learning is fast.</p></div><p>Internal agents can start by operating within that slice. External agents (for example, a partner&#8217;s automation or a customer&#8217;s &#8220;ops copilot&#8221;) can start by calling a small, well-defined subset of capabilities.</p><h2><strong>Where agents fit into this</strong></h2><p>Once you&#8217;ve done this for even a small number of workflows, you can introduce agents in a way that makes sense:</p><ul><li><p>An <strong>internal agent</strong> can monitor events and propose or take decisions in clearly defined states.</p></li><li><p>Another internal agent can orchestrate calls to capabilities you&#8217;ve already exposed.</p></li><li><p><strong>External agents</strong> can:</p><ul><li><p>request quotes,</p></li><li><p>place orders,</p></li><li><p>check status,</p></li><li><p>reschedule or cancel,<br>within guardrails you set.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>You&#8217;re not asking agents to:</p><ul><li><p>infer messy, undocumented rules from noisy data,</p></li><li><p>improvise ownership,</p></li><li><p>or guess how to handle exceptions you&#8217;ve never defined.</p></li></ul><p>You&#8217;re asking them to operate inside a workflow that has:</p><ul><li><p>clear states,</p></li><li><p>clear capabilities,</p></li><li><p>clear accountability,</p></li><li><p>and clear contracts at the edge.</p></li></ul><p>That&#8217;s where they create leverage instead of chaos &#8211; and where external agents can confidently keep sending work your way.</p><h2><strong>This is evolution, not revolution</strong></h2><p>The point here is simple:</p><ul><li><p>You don&#8217;t have to switch everything off.</p></li><li><p>You don&#8217;t have to wait for some perfect platform.</p></li><li><p>You don&#8217;t have to pretend your world is simpler than it is.</p></li></ul><p>You <em>do</em> need to:</p><ul><li><p>pick concrete workflows,</p></li><li><p>deliberately lower internal friction,</p></li><li><p>expose cleaner structure for humans and agents,</p></li><li><p>and decide where and how you want to be consumable by external agents.</p></li></ul><p>If you&#8217;re planning big moves in 2026, make this the bar:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>&#8220;Does this initiative make our workflows more friction-lite and agent-ready, <strong>inside and outside</strong>, without betting the business on a single giant leap?&#8221;</p></div><p>If the answer is yes, you&#8217;re moving in the right direction.</p><p>If the answer is no, you&#8217;re probably adding another layer of complexity you&#8217;ll pay for later &#8211; in human frustration today, and in lost demand when the next generation of agentic platforms quietly chooses someone else.</p><p>Designing friction-lite workflows, one slice at a time, is how you avoid that choice.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026: The Most Expensive Tech Debt You Haven’t Booked Yet]]></title><description><![CDATA[The investments you approve in 2026 will either make you agent-ready, or turn you into a high-friction supplier that agentic platforms quietly route around]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/2026-the-most-expensive-tech-debt</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/2026-the-most-expensive-tech-debt</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2025 09:31:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sscb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24689957-cf42-4704-add5-3c6fadc46585_1280x720.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sscb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24689957-cf42-4704-add5-3c6fadc46585_1280x720.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sscb!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24689957-cf42-4704-add5-3c6fadc46585_1280x720.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sscb!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24689957-cf42-4704-add5-3c6fadc46585_1280x720.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sscb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24689957-cf42-4704-add5-3c6fadc46585_1280x720.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sscb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24689957-cf42-4704-add5-3c6fadc46585_1280x720.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img 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class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h1>Your 2026 roadmap is likely funding the next wave of stranded assets.</h1><p>Most tech debt isn&#8217;t just old code. It&#8217;s structural.</p><ul><li><p>It&#8217;s the &#8220;modern&#8221; platform you just bought that has an API, but requires a human to email support to get a token.</p></li><li><p>It&#8217;s the governance model that technically allows automation, but practically requires a human to click &#8220;Approve&#8221; for every exception.</p></li><li><p>It&#8217;s the data model that is optimised for human reporting, not machine reasoning.</p></li></ul><p>We usually book tech debt as a line item for later. But in the agentic economy, this debt is existential.</p><p>If an external agent (buying on behalf of a customer) hits your friction, it doesn&#8217;t complain. It just goes to your competitor who has an API that actually works.</p><p>In Part 3 of this series, I breakdown:</p><ul><li><p>Why your 2026 roadmap might be funding the next wave of stranded assets.</p></li><li><p>The &#8220;Agentic Test&#8221; for new investments: Does this increase or decrease our structural optionality?</p></li><li><p>How to stop buying &#8220;Performance Theatre&#8221; (nicer dashboards) and start buying leverage.</p></li></ul><p>A challenge for this week:</p><p>Look at the biggest tech investment on your desk for 2026 and ask one question:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>&#8220;If a third-party AI agent needed to use this system to buy from us without a human, could it?&#8221;</p></div><p>If the answer is no, you might be buying a legacy asset.</p><p>If you aren&#8217;t sure, hit reply (or DM me). I&#8217;m opening a few spots for &#8220;Red Pen&#8221; reviews to stress-test your 2026 roadmap before you sign the cheque.</p><p>Read the full analysis below. &#128071;</p><div><hr></div><h1>2026: The Most Expensive Tech Debt You Haven&#8217;t Booked Yet</h1><p>Most leadership teams don&#8217;t experience tech debt as a line item. They experience it as:</p><ul><li><p>growth that&#8217;s slower than it should be,</p></li><li><p>transformation that costs more and delivers less,</p></li><li><p>and &#8220;strategic platforms&#8221; nobody wants to touch.</p></li></ul><p>Looking backwards, it&#8217;s easy to see how this happened:</p><ul><li><p>big bets on systems that never really integrated,</p></li><li><p>operating models that hardened around stopgap processes,</p></li><li><p>AI and data projects that made slideware promises and operational headaches.</p></li></ul><p>Looking forwards, 2026 is shaping up to be another big investment year:</p><ul><li><p>refreshed digital and AI roadmaps,</p></li><li><p>new data and agent platforms,</p></li><li><p>consolidation of bloated SaaS stacks,</p></li><li><p>rethinking customer and employee journeys.</p></li></ul><p>All of this is happening just as <strong>agentic interfaces</strong> start to emerge:</p><ul><li><p>browsers and sidecars that scan dozens of sites and services at once,</p></li><li><p>orchestration layers that compare providers on speed, reliability, and friction,</p></li><li><p>domain-specific agent apps that sit between buyers and entire supply markets.</p></li></ul><p>The question is simple:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>Are you about to fund the foundations of your agentic future, or the next wave of stranded assets that external agents learn to avoid?</p></div><h2><strong>The invisible tech debt you are about to create</strong></h2><p>Tech debt is usually framed as:</p><ul><li><p>old code,</p></li><li><p>unsupported systems,</p></li><li><p>delayed upgrades.</p></li></ul><p>Over the next few years, a more structural form of tech debt will matter far more:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Operating models that are too rigid for agents to work inside.</strong><br>Processes designed around manual control and human gatekeepers.</p></li><li><p><strong>Capabilities that external agents can&#8217;t easily consume.</strong><br>Limited or inconsistent APIs, no real-time events, opaque pricing and SLAs.</p></li><li><p><strong>Governance models that assume a human in every loop.</strong><br>Every decision treated as bespoke, every exception routed through committees.</p></li></ol><p>You can modernise the front-end and still end up here.</p><p>In fact, many &#8220;modernisation&#8221; programmes accidentally <em>increase</em> this kind of debt:</p><ul><li><p>multiple SaaS platforms with overlapping capabilities,</p></li><li><p>integration patterns that lock you into brittle, point-to-point dependencies,</p></li><li><p>data models optimised for reporting, not for real-time decisioning by agents.</p></li></ul><p>On a slide, everything looks connected.<br>In reality, nothing moves without heavy manual effort.</p><p>To an external agent, the kind your customers will increasingly rely on, you show up as: <em>slow, opaque, and hard to work with.</em></p><h2><strong>The agentic test for 2026 investments</strong></h2><p>If the cost of transactions, coordination, decisions, and actions, really does trend towards zero in the wider economy, then your internal and external transaction costs become the constraint.</p><p>The agentic test for any major 2026 investment is straightforward:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Does this reduce our internal transaction costs?</strong></p><ul><li><p>fewer approvals,</p></li><li><p>fewer handoffs,</p></li><li><p>fewer systems for the same outcome.</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>Does this make us easier for external agents to work with?</strong></p><ul><li><p>clear, well-documented APIs,</p></li><li><p>reliable events that reflect real-world state,</p></li><li><p>machine-readable pricing, SLAs, and constraints.</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>Does this increase or decrease our structural optionality?</strong></p><ul><li><p>can we re-route flows,</p></li><li><p>introduce new agents,</p></li><li><p>or swap out components without rewiring the whole organisation?</p></li></ul></li></ol><p>If an initiative fails that test, you&#8217;re likely buying <strong>performance theatre</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>nicer dashboards,</p></li><li><p>more automation layered over broken systems,</p></li><li><p>but no real shift in how work flows inside, or how you present yourself to external agents.</p></li></ul><p>That&#8217;s the kind of asset that looks great in a press release and painful when you realise that the better external agents simply stop choosing you.</p><h2><strong>How stranded assets will show up in the agentic economy</strong></h2><p>Stranded assets in this context won&#8217;t look like abandoned factories.</p><p>They&#8217;ll look like:</p><ul><li><p>&#8220;modern&#8221; platforms nobody can integrate with cleanly,</p></li><li><p>processes that are too bespoke for agents to navigate,</p></li><li><p>data that is high-volume but low-context and unusable in real time.</p></li></ul><p>As agentic interfaces mature, this will show up in conversations like:</p><ul><li><p>&#8220;The customer&#8217;s automation keeps dropping us from its shortlist.&#8221;</p></li><li><p>&#8220;Our APIs technically exist, but external agents time out or get inconsistent states.&#8221;</p></li><li><p>&#8220;We&#8217;re being excluded from new agent-driven marketplaces because we can&#8217;t meet their integration bar.&#8221;</p></li></ul><p>Meanwhile, the rest of the market will be:</p><ul><li><p>exposing cleaner, composable capabilities,</p></li><li><p>letting agents negotiate, schedule, and transact directly,</p></li><li><p>reducing internal and external friction at the same time.</p></li></ul><p>You&#8217;ll be stuck playing defence inside your own four walls while demand flows through lower-friction providers.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>What to do before you sign the 2026 cheques</strong></h2><p>This is not an argument to freeze investment. It&#8217;s an argument to change how you make investment decisions.</p><p>Three practical moves before you sign:</p><h3><strong>1. Add an &#8220;agent-readiness&#8221; lens to your business cases</strong></h3><p>For every major initiative, include a simple section:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Internal:</strong> How will this reduce internal friction and expose clearer states and capabilities?</p></li><li><p><strong>External:</strong> How will this make it easier for external agents to discover, compare, and consume what we do?</p></li></ul><p>Be specific:</p><ul><li><p>Which APIs or events will exist that don&#8217;t exist today?</p></li><li><p>What will a third-party agent be able to do end-to-end without human intervention?</p></li><li><p>How will we measure &#8220;friction&#8221; from an external agent&#8217;s perspective?</p></li></ul><p>If the answers are vague, or buried under generic promises, press harder.</p><h3><strong>2. Tie platform decisions to ecosystem decisions</strong></h3><p>Don&#8217;t treat platforms as neutral infrastructure.</p><p>Every platform decision is:</p><ul><li><p>an <strong>operating model decision</strong> (how work flows internally), and</p></li><li><p>an <strong>ecosystem decision</strong> (how easy it is for others to plug into you).</p></li></ul><p>Make that explicit:</p><ul><li><p>When you buy a new system, define not just the internal journey, but the external touchpoints and contracts.</p></li><li><p>When you redesign a process, define which capabilities will be callable by external agents, under what guardrails.</p></li><li><p>When you introduce AI, define where it sits relative to external agent flows: will it broker, respond, verify, or all three?</p></li></ul><h3><strong>3. Reserve capacity for simplification, not just addition</strong></h3><p>Most roadmaps are biased towards adding:</p><ul><li><p>more data sources,</p></li><li><p>more use cases,</p></li><li><p>more capabilities.</p></li></ul><p>Make simplification a funded workstream, not an afterthought:</p><ul><li><p>consolidate overlapping tools,</p></li><li><p>retire zombie processes,</p></li><li><p>reduce configuration and policy sprawl.</p></li></ul><p>Every simplification you deliver now reduces the cost of integrating with agentic platforms later &#8211; and makes you a more attractive node in their networks.</p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>A different question for your board</strong></h2><p>Instead of asking &#8220;How much are we investing in AI and digital in 2026?&#8221;, ask:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>&#8220;Of the money we&#8217;re investing in 2026, how much is honestly reducing internal transaction costs, increasing our readiness for internal and external agents, and decreasing our structural tech debt?&#8221;</p></div><p>If you can&#8217;t answer that clearly, you&#8217;re flying blind.</p><p>The agentic economy won&#8217;t reward the organisations that spend the most on AI slideware.</p><p>It will reward the ones that:</p><ul><li><p>consciously design for lower internal friction,</p></li><li><p>expose capabilities that external agents can reliably consume,</p></li><li><p>and treat every 2026 investment as either a step towards that future &#8211; or a cost they refuse to carry.</p></li></ul><p>You don&#8217;t control the pace of model innovation.</p><p>You do control whether you turn 2026 into the year you quietly funded your next wave of stranded assets, or the year you started to re-architect for a world where <strong>agents, not just humans, decide who gets the work.</strong></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chaos, Complexity, and Why “Just Add Agents” Makes Everything Worse]]></title><description><![CDATA[Most enterprises think their operations are &#8220;complicated.&#8221; In reality, many have tipped into chaos.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/chaos-complexity-and-why-just-add</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/chaos-complexity-and-why-just-add</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2025 09:45:35 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic" width="1280" height="720" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;:1280,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:140788,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://markstrefford.substack.com/i/180159541?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3CiQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8f745cdc-ba9c-4edf-a746-9a2f86cb13b4_1280x720.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Most enterprises think their operations are &#8220;complicated.&#8221; In reality, many have tipped into <strong>chaos</strong>.</p><p>Nobody can explain the full end-to-end flow. Different teams hold contradictory truths. Systems have grown in layers over years of quick fixes.</p><p>Into this environment, the market is offering a seductive message: </p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>&#8220;Don&#8217;t worry about the mess. Just add AI agents to orchestrate it.&#8221;</em></p></div><p><strong>This is a trap.</strong></p><p>If you introduce agents into a chaotic system, they don&#8217;t magically simplify it. They inherit the chaos.</p><ul><li><p><strong>Internally</strong>, this means faster bad decisions and new shadow workflows.</p></li><li><p><strong>Externally</strong>, it means the new wave of &#8220;agentic browsers&#8221; (buying on behalf of your customers) will quietly route around you because your APIs are unreliable and your outcomes are unpredictable.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Shift:</strong> You cannot &#8220;orchestrate&#8221; a mess. You have to architecture your way out of it.</p><p><strong>In Part 2 of this series on the Next Era of the Enterprise, I break down:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Why &#8220;Orchestration&#8221; is failing inside the enterprise.</p></li><li><p>The difference between Complicated (Jet Engine) and Complex (Economy) systems, and why it matters.</p></li><li><p>Three practical moves to reduce complexity <em>before</em> the agents arrive in force.</p></li></ul><p><strong>A challenge for this week:</strong> Pick one critical workflow (e.g., onboarding, ordering). Map every step, handoff, and system. Highlight the steps where nobody is quite sure what really happens.</p><p>If you find chaos but don&#8217;t know where to start fixing it, <strong>hit reply</strong> (or DM me). I&#8217;m opening a few spots for &#8220;Red Pen&#8221; reviews to help you simplify before you automate.</p><p><strong>Read the full analysis below.</strong> &#128071;</p><div><hr></div><h1><strong>Chaos, Complexity, and Why &#8220;Just Add Agents&#8221; Makes Everything Worse</strong></h1><p><strong>If your operating model is already messy, agents don&#8217;t bring leverage. They bring faster chaos, inside your walls and out at the edge.</strong></p><p>Most organisations think they have &#8220;complicated&#8221; operations.</p><p>In reality, many have tipped into <strong>complexity</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>Nobody can explain the full end-to-end flow.</p></li><li><p>Different teams hold contradictory truths about how things &#8220;actually&#8221; work.</p></li><li><p>Systems and processes have grown in layers over years of restructuring, acquisitions, and quick fixes.</p></li></ul><p>You see the symptoms everywhere:</p><ul><li><p>Projects that stall because nobody can agree who owns the outcome.</p></li><li><p>Data pipelines that don&#8217;t reconcile, even though they &#8220;should&#8221;.</p></li><li><p>KPIs that move in opposite directions when you change one process.</p></li></ul><p>Into this environment, the market is now offering a powerful message:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>&#8220;Don&#8217;t worry about the mess. Just add agents.&#8221;</p></div><p>Not just inside your enterprise, but outside:</p><ul><li><p>agentic browsers that scan dozens of sites and APIs at once,</p></li><li><p>orchestration layers that manage work across multiple vendors,</p></li><li><p>domain-specific agent apps that sit between your customers and the whole market.</p></li></ul><p>On paper, it all sounds perfect.<br>In reality, it&#8217;s a recipe for making your existing problems move faster &#8211; and for external agents to quietly route around you.</p><h2><strong>Complicated vs complex vs chaotic</strong></h2><p>It&#8217;s worth drawing a simple line:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Complicated</strong>: Lots of moving parts, but cause and effect are still understandable. A jet engine is complicated.</p></li><li><p><strong>Complex</strong>: Cause and effect are blurred. Small changes ripple in unpredictable ways. An economy, a social network, or a large yet well run organisation would sit here.</p></li><li><p><strong>Chaotic</strong>: No reliable patterns. You&#8217;re reacting, not designing.</p></li></ul><p>Most enterprises sit somewhere between complex and chaotic in key parts of their operation:</p><ul><li><p>Legacy processes that nobody owns.</p></li><li><p>Shadow flows running in Excel and email.</p></li><li><p>Workarounds layered on top of workarounds.</p></li></ul><p>When you introduce <strong>internal agents</strong> into this world, they don&#8217;t magically simplify it.<br>They inherit the chaos.</p><p>When <strong>external agents</strong> hit this same world &#8211; via your APIs, portals, SLAs, and contracts &#8211; they hit the same inconsistent states, unclear ownership, and opaque failure modes.</p><p>The result: they either downgrade you in their recommendation logic, or avoid you altogether.</p><h2><strong>What agents actually do in a messy environment</strong></h2><p>In a tidy operating model, an internal agent can:</p><ul><li><p>observe state,</p></li><li><p>make a decision,</p></li><li><p>trigger an action,</p></li><li><p>and log what happened.</p></li></ul><p>An external agent, say, an agentic browser acting on your customer&#8217;s behalf, can:</p><ul><li><p>query availability, price, and risk,</p></li><li><p>compare options across multiple providers,</p></li><li><p>place an order,</p></li><li><p>track fulfilment.</p></li></ul><p>In a messy operating model, both types of agents are forced to:</p><ul><li><p>infer state from partial, conflicting data,</p></li><li><p>guess who owns what,</p></li><li><p>work around missing permissions and broken integrations,</p></li><li><p>and route edge cases to humans who are already overloaded.</p></li></ul><p>Internally, that becomes:</p><ul><li><p><strong>faster bad decisions</strong>,</p></li><li><p><strong>new shadow flows</strong> to fix agent errors,</p></li><li><p><strong>opaque failure modes</strong> nobody can untangle.</p></li></ul><p>Externally, it becomes:</p><ul><li><p>agents abandoning your APIs because they can&#8217;t trust the responses,</p></li><li><p>retries and timeouts that mark you as &#8220;high friction&#8221;,</p></li><li><p>unfulfilled transactions or ordered left in a limbo state no one can understand,</p></li><li><p>external agents preferring suppliers whose capabilities are simpler and more predictable.</p></li></ul><p>You get speed without reliability.<br>Throughput without understanding.<br>And you become <strong>less attractive</strong> to the external agents that will increasingly decide where demand flows.</p><h2><strong>The illusion of &#8220;AI orchestration&#8221;</strong></h2><p>A lot of enterprise AI roadmaps talk about &#8220;orchestrating&#8221; work with agents.</p><p>The diagram always looks clean:</p><ol><li><p>An event happens.</p></li><li><p>An internal agent detects it.</p></li><li><p>Tasks are routed to other agents or humans.</p></li><li><p>External agents connect to a neat API layer.</p></li><li><p>Everything syncs back to a single source of truth.</p></li></ol><p>But orchestration only works if:</p><ul><li><p>states are well-defined,</p></li><li><p>ownership is clear,</p></li><li><p>systems behave in relatively predictable ways.</p></li></ul><p>If your current world looks more like:</p><ul><li><p>three versions of the truth,</p></li><li><p>four teams involved in every decision,</p></li><li><p>and five overlapping systems in the same process,</p></li></ul><p>then &#8220;orchestration&#8221; quickly turns into &#8220;herding&#8221;.</p><p>Internal agents end up:</p><ul><li><p>looping between conflicting rules,</p></li><li><p>escalating to humans who have no idea what&#8217;s already happened.</p></li></ul><p>External agents end up:</p><ul><li><p>hitting inconsistent responses,</p></li><li><p>getting different answers for the same query,</p></li><li><p>discovering that the &#8220;real&#8221; process still runs in email and spreadsheets.</p></li></ul><p>From the outside, you become a <strong>high-friction node</strong> in a low-friction network.</p><h2><strong>This is not a call to wait</strong></h2><p>The wrong conclusion here is:</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;Our world is too messy. We&#8217;ll wait until the tech matures.&#8221;</p></blockquote><p>That&#8217;s a good way to be invisible when the next wave of agentic platforms goes mainstream.</p><p>The better conclusion is:</p><div class="pullquote"><p>&#8220;If we want agents, both inside and outside, to work for us later, we have to deliberately reduce chaos and complexity now.&#8221;</p></div><p>This forces uncomfortable questions:</p><ul><li><p>Which processes are we keeping alive out of habit, not value?</p></li><li><p>Where do we have more steps than outcomes?</p></li><li><p>Where are we using structure as a substitute for trust?</p></li><li><p>What would an external agent <em>see</em> if it tried to interact with us end-to-end?</p></li></ul><p>You&#8217;re not aiming for a perfectly engineered organisation. That&#8217;s a fantasy.</p><p>You&#8217;re aiming to:</p><ul><li><p><strong>reduce unnecessary complexity</strong>,</p></li><li><p><strong>expose clear, composable capabilities</strong> that any agent can call,</p></li><li><p><strong>design for transparency</strong>, so humans and agents see the same reality.</p></li></ul><h2><strong>Practical ways to reduce complexity before agents arrive in force</strong></h2><p>You don&#8217;t need a multi-year programme to start this. You can begin with three moves that matter inside and at the edge.</p><h3><strong>1. Map a single flow &#8211; including the external touchpoints</strong></h3><p>Pick one critical flow &#8211; onboarding a customer, fulfilling an order, booking a procedure, provisioning a service.</p><ul><li><p>Map every step from external trigger to final outcome.</p></li><li><p>Include where customers, partners, or regulators touch the flow.</p></li><li><p>For each step, record: who does it, in what system, with what input and output.</p></li><li><p>Highlight the steps where nobody is quite sure what really happens.</p></li></ul><p>This isn&#8217;t about a perfect diagram. It&#8217;s about surfacing where reality already diverges from the neat version your future external agents will see.</p><h3><strong>2. Remove one layer of unnecessary indirection</strong></h3><p>Find steps where:</p><ul><li><p>work bounces between teams without adding value,</p></li><li><p>approvals exist mainly because &#8220;something went wrong once&#8221;,</p></li><li><p>or data is re-keyed or re-shaped three times.</p></li></ul><p>Then deliberately remove or consolidate <em>one</em> layer:</p><ul><li><p>merge two handoffs into one,</p></li><li><p>turn three approvals into one accountable decision-maker,</p></li><li><p>expose a single integration instead of five.</p></li></ul><p>Everything you simplify internally makes you easier for external agents to trust and integrate with.</p><h3><strong>3. Standardise the minimum you need for agents to be useful</strong></h3><p>Agents &#8211; internal and external &#8211; don&#8217;t need perfection. They need:</p><ul><li><p>consistent identifiers,</p></li><li><p>stable APIs or event streams,</p></li><li><p>clear rules about who can do what,</p></li><li><p>predictable behaviour under load and failure.</p></li></ul><p>Pick a narrow slice of your world and standardise just enough for an agent to observe and act without guesswork.</p><p>That might mean:</p><ul><li><p>agreeing a canonical customer ID,</p></li><li><p>exposing a single &#8220;quote&#8221; and &#8220;order&#8221; capability,</p></li><li><p>or emitting reliable events when key states change.</p></li></ul><p>Now an internal agent can orchestrate across teams, and an external agent (an agentic browser, a partner&#8217;s integration) can do something useful without human intervention.</p><h2><strong>The payoff: less chaos now, more demand later</strong></h2><p>If you do this, two things happen:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Your current operations get smoother.</strong><br>You spend less time firefighting issues caused by invisible complexity and conflicting truths.</p></li><li><p><strong>You become legible to external agents.</strong><br>As browsers, sidecars and agent platforms start brokering more work, they see a set of clean capabilities and predictable behaviour &#8211; not a fuzzy, high-friction black box.</p></li></ol><p>The agentic economy is not a Field of Dreams &#8220;build it and they will come&#8221;. It&#8217;s: </p><div class="pullquote"><p><strong>Design your organisation so that when agents, inside and outside, arrive in force, they amplify good structure instead of accelerating chaos, and they actively route demand your way instead of around you.</strong></p></div><p>That starts with being honest about where you sit today on the spectrum from complicated to complex to chaotic, and taking deliberate steps to move in the right direction.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[High-Friction Firms in a Low-Friction World]]></title><description><![CDATA[When the external cost of transactions falls to zero and the internal cost is still huge.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/high-friction-firms-in-a-low-friction</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/high-friction-firms-in-a-low-friction</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 29 Nov 2025 09:30:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic" width="1280" height="720" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;:1280,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:144061,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://markstrefford.substack.com/i/180158014?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GDd7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29625d98-7349-4b63-ba86-0103093baa76_1280x720.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The dominant narrative is that AI reduces costs. We are told that headcount will drop, API calls are cheap, and the cost of intelligence is trending towards zero.</p><p>But inside most large organisations, the <em>real</em> cost of a single meaningful transaction isn&#8217;t computing power. It is buried in approvals, handoffs, email chains, and governance theatre.</p><p>AI doesn&#8217;t solve this. In fact, if you add high-speed agents to a high-friction organisation, you just get faster chaos.</p><p>From the outside, it looks like a modern firm. From the inside, it feels like wading through glue.</p><p><strong>The Shift:</strong> If the external market moves to zero-friction agentic interactions while your internal operating model remains high-friction, you aren&#8217;t just inefficient. You are structurally obsolete.</p><p><strong>In this article, I break down:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Why the next era of the enterprise is not about firing people, but about removing internal drag.</p></li><li><p>How to stress-test your 2026 investment roadmap for &#8220;Agent-Readiness.&#8221;</p></li><li><p>A simple mapping exercise to expose where your real transaction costs live.</p></li></ul><p><strong>A challenge for this week:</strong> Run the mapping exercise inside on just one workflow. If you find the friction points but aren&#8217;t sure how to remove them without breaking the process, <strong>hit reply</strong> (or DM me).</p><div><hr></div><h1><strong>The Post-Firm Enterprise: Why Your Internal Friction Is Your Biggest AI Risk</strong></h1><p><strong>Everyone talks about agents killing transaction costs. Few admit how expensive transactions still are inside their own walls.</strong></p><p>We like to tell ourselves that AI is pushing the cost of transactions towards zero.</p><p>API calls are cheap. Models are getting better. Agents will soon be able to talk to other agents and systems and vendors and customers. &#8220;Everything will just&#8230; happen.&#8221;</p><p>From a distance, it looks like the cost of getting something done is approaching zero.</p><p>Inside most large organisations, it&#8217;s nowhere near zero.</p><p>The real cost of a single meaningful transaction is buried in:</p><ul><li><p>approvals and sign-offs,</p></li><li><p>handoffs between teams,</p></li><li><p>email chains and Teams chats,</p></li><li><p>risk and compliance reviews,</p></li><li><p>&#8220;who actually owns this?&#8221;,</p></li><li><p>&#8220;can you resend that deck?&#8221;,</p></li><li><p>and a dozen systems nobody fully trusts.</p></li></ul><div class="pullquote"><p>From the outside, it looks like a firm.<br>From the inside, it feels like wading through glue.</p></div><h2><strong>The myth of zero transaction costs</strong></h2><p>There&#8217;s an old idea in economics: firms exist because it&#8217;s cheaper to do things inside the firm than in the open market.</p><p>Ronald Coase made this point almost a century ago, firms arise when the <strong>transaction costs</strong> of using the market (searching, negotiating, contracting) are higher than the cost of coordinating work inside a single organisation. If it&#8217;s cheaper to coordinate internally, you build a firm. If it&#8217;s cheaper to coordinate externally, you don&#8217;t need one.</p><p>That might have been true when &#8220;inside&#8221; meant:</p><ul><li><p>fewer contracts,</p></li><li><p>simpler coordination,</p></li><li><p>clearer ownership.</p></li></ul><p>Today, for many enterprises, that logic has quietly flipped.</p><p>The <em>apparent</em> cost of doing something internally (no vendors, no procurement, no new contracts) looks low. The <em>real</em> cost, in time, attention, meetings, escalations, rework, is huge.</p><p>You see it every time you try to:</p><ul><li><p>launch a new product,</p></li><li><p>change a process,</p></li><li><p>or connect two systems that &#8220;should just talk to each other&#8221;.</p></li></ul><p>On paper: trivial.<br>In reality: months of friction.</p><p>This is the transaction cost that rarely appears on a budget line, but shapes everything.</p><h2><strong>The post-firm enterprise</strong></h2><p>When people talk about the agentic economy, they often jump straight to a kind of utopia:</p><ul><li><p>Agents negotiating on our behalf.</p></li><li><p>Work routing itself to the right capability.</p></li><li><p>Processes that are self-optimising and self-healing.</p></li></ul><p>It sounds like a world where you no longer need everyone under one metaphorical roof. Work flows through a network of capabilities, not a hierarchy of departments.</p><p>That <em>is</em> the direction of travel.</p><p>But most enterprises are structurally nowhere near ready for that world.</p><p>Instead, they&#8217;ve layered tools and automations on top of:</p><ul><li><p>legacy processes,</p></li><li><p>brittle data,</p></li><li><p>and organisational structures designed for a different era.</p></li></ul><p>If you drop agents into that environment, you don&#8217;t get a post-firm enterprise.<br>You get faster chaos.</p><p>A post-firm enterprise isn&#8217;t &#8220;no firm&#8221;. It&#8217;s a firm that behaves as though the cost of coordination, decision-making, and execution is genuinely low, because it has done the hard work to reduce internal friction.</p><h2><strong>This is not a utopia pitch</strong></h2><p>This is where a lot of AI conversations lose people.</p><p>They imply that you should:</p><ul><li><p>throw away how you operate today,</p></li><li><p>rebuild everything around agents,</p></li><li><p>and hope it all works out.</p></li></ul><p>That&#8217;s not the argument.</p><p>You still need to run the business. You still need to deliver this year&#8217;s numbers. Nobody is asking you to switch everything off tomorrow and wait for agents to land.</p><p>This is not a &#8220;build it and they will come&#8221; story.</p><p>It&#8217;s much more pragmatic:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Reduce the internal friction</strong> that is silently taxing every transaction today.</p></li><li><p><strong>Design work and data flows</strong> that an agentic environment can plug into tomorrow.</p></li></ul><p>You don&#8217;t get ready for the agentic economy by buying an &#8220;agent platform&#8221;.<br>You get ready by making it easier for <em>any</em> agent, human or AI, to see what&#8217;s going on and act end-to-end.</p><h2><strong>2026: the year you either get ready &#8211; or lock in another cycle of debt</strong></h2><p>If you&#8217;re planning major investments in 2026, new core platforms, AI programmes, operating model redesign, this is the moment to stress-test them against this reality.</p><p>For every significant initiative, ask three questions:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Does this reduce internal friction, or hide it?</strong><br>Are you genuinely simplifying workflows, approvals, and ownership &#8211; or just wrapping them in a prettier interface and a chatbot?</p></li><li><p><strong>Does this make it easier for agents (human or AI) to act?</strong><br>Will a future agent be able to:</p><ul><li><p>understand state,</p></li><li><p>take decisions,</p></li><li><p>and execute actions end-to-end<br>using the data and processes you&#8217;re putting in place?</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>Are we increasing or decreasing our structural tech debt?</strong><br>Are you adding another siloed platform with yet another integration layer, or are you consolidating and clarifying how work flows across the enterprise?</p></li></ol><p>If the honest answers are &#8220;no, no, and&#8230; probably not&#8221;, there&#8217;s a good chance you&#8217;re pre-funding the stranded assets of 2027 and 2028.</p><h2><strong>Tech debt isn&#8217;t just code</strong></h2><p>We usually talk about tech debt as:</p><ul><li><p>bad code,</p></li><li><p>old systems,</p></li><li><p>unfixed bugs.</p></li></ul><p>Over the next five years, the most expensive tech debt will be:</p><ul><li><p>operating models you can&#8217;t unpick,</p></li><li><p>platforms that can&#8217;t be easily orchestrated by agents,</p></li><li><p>governance models that assume a human in every loop, every time.</p></li></ul><div class="pullquote"><p>You can refactor code.<br>It&#8217;s much harder to refactor an organisation&#8217;s way of working once you&#8217;ve wrapped it in contracts, SLAs, and &#8220;this is how we do things here&#8221;.</p></div><h2><strong>A simple provocation to end with</strong></h2><p>Pick one high-value workflow in your business.</p><ul><li><p>Map every step, decision, and handoff.</p></li><li><p>Label each step as <strong>Friction-creating</strong> or <strong>Friction-removing</strong>.</p></li></ul><p>Then ask:</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;If this had to run in a world where agents can see our data and act across our systems in real time, what would we strip out, what would we standardise, and what would we expose as clean capabilities?&#8221;</p></blockquote><p>That&#8217;s the starting point of the post-firm enterprise.</p><p>Not shutting the firm down.<br>Not waiting for some AI utopia.</p><p>Just systematically reducing the internal friction that&#8217;s costing you today, and will decide whether you thrive or fall behind in the agentic economy tomorrow.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Economics of the Firm Just Flipped]]></title><description><![CDATA[We are entering the biggest economic shift since the Industrial Revolution.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/the-economics-of-the-firm-just-flipped</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/the-economics-of-the-firm-just-flipped</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Nov 2025 16:24:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png" width="1456" height="819" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X5mz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1edf8887-4a71-4bcc-9ce0-c7a01a3d5cee_1920x1080.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>We are entering the biggest economic shift since the Industrial Revolution.</p><p>The &#8220;Enterprise&#8221; as we know it, a walled garden of humans, silos, and overheads, was designed for a world of high transaction costs. You needed to hire 1,000 people because it was the only way to coordinate work.</p><p><strong>That era is ending.</strong></p><p>In the Agentic Economy:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Discovery is automated:</strong> Agents find products, not marketing departments.</p></li><li><p><strong>Transactions are programmatic:</strong> Agents negotiate and pay, not sales teams.</p></li><li><p><strong>Value is fluid:</strong> Agents assemble supply chains in real-time.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Structural Risk:</strong> Most organisations are trying to &#8220;bolt on&#8221; AI to their existing structure. They are adding digital engines to a steam-powered chassis. This creates technical debt, governance risks, and massive inefficiency.</p><p><strong>The Opportunity:</strong> The winners of the next decade won&#8217;t be the companies that &#8220;use AI.&#8221; They will be the companies that <strong>reimagine their operating model</strong> to be AI-Native.</p><div class="pullquote"><p>They will move from &#8220;Managed Hierarchies&#8221; to &#8220;Architected Networks.&#8221;</p></div><p><strong>This is why I launched Reimagined.</strong></p><p>We exist to help senior leaders navigate this transition. We don&#8217;t sell software. We help you architect the <strong>Post-Firm Operating Model</strong>, one that captures the speed of agents without losing the governance of the enterprise.</p><p><strong>What to expect from this list:</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>The Signal:</strong> Deep analysis of the economics of the agent-to-agent world.</p></li><li><p><strong>The Patterns:</strong> How to structure data, governance, and value chains for the new economy.</p></li><li><p><strong>The Reality:</strong> &#8220;Red Pen&#8221; reviews of where current AI strategies are failing.</p></li></ul><p>We are moving from pilots that promise to systems that deliver.</p><p>Welcome to the build.</p><p><strong>Mark Strefford</strong> <em>Founder, <a href="https://reimagined.industries">Reimagined Industries</a></em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Corporates might not survive the agent era]]></title><description><![CDATA[Most conversations about AI inside big organisations start from a hidden assumption.]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/corporates-might-not-survive-the</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/corporates-might-not-survive-the</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Nov 2025 13:06:25 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic" width="1200" height="1200" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1200,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:64693,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.markstrefford.com/i/179556173?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MEXM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb55c4433-2244-4784-b0b3-f4a68bfbff04_1200x1200.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h3>Most conversations about AI inside big organisations start from a hidden assumption.</h3><p>That the organisation itself still exists in anything like its current form in 10 years.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>I am not sure it does.</em></p></div><p>We built corporations because it was cheaper to do things inside the firm than to coordinate thousands of transactions in the market. Coordination had a cost. Contracts had a cost. Search had a cost. Trust had a cost.</p><p>AI agents crush those costs.</p><p>In an agentic world:</p><p>- people have their own personal agents</p><p>- those agents understand preferences, constraints, ethics and risk appetite</p><p>- they guard and use data on our behalf</p><p>- they discover options, assemble services, negotiate and handle the admin</p><p>- they can orchestrate transactions across hundreds of firms in seconds</p><p>If the cost of coordination tends to zero, so does the traditional advantage of the corporate.</p><p>Except where the underlying asset base is huge and physical. Think transport networks, energy infrastructure, heavy industry and a handful of other capital intensive sectors.</p><p>Those do not disappear. But the structure wrapped around them does not need to look like a 1980s conglomerate.</p><p>I have spent the last 20 years helping large organisations use data and technology to change how they work. Long before the current AI hype cycle, I was arguing that AI ROI had to start with the business problem, not the tools. Over and over I have seen the same pattern: leaders deprioritise structural risk while they chase short term efficiency wins.</p><p>The pattern is simple. Leaders optimise the wrong layer of the system.</p><p>Most AI roadmaps sit in the &#8220;efficiency inside today&#8217;s org chart&#8221; zone.</p><p>More pilots. More tools. More automation wrapped around legacy processes.</p><p>Useful, maybe. But it assumes the corporate structure is the thing to preserve.</p><p>What if that is the wrong problem?</p><p>If every customer, supplier and employee had their own powerful agents, would they still need your organisation, or would they route around it?</p><p>If your confidence rests on:</p><p>- long or complex contracts</p><p>- &#8220;owning&#8221; the customer relationship or channel</p><p>- being the default option inside someone else&#8217;s bundle or framework</p><p>- processes and systems that make switching slow or painful</p><p>then your moat is friction.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>And agents are designed to remove friction.</em></p></div><p>They will route around any node in the network that does not deliver clear value, reliability and trust.</p><p>If you are a CEO, CFO or CTO, try this prompt with your team next week:</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;Assume every one of our customers has their own AI agent in three years.</p><p>List the top five reasons their agent would choose to work with us.</p><p>Then list the top five reasons it would quietly route around us.&#8221;</p></blockquote><p>The gap between those two lists is where your real strategy work starts.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Reimagine]]></title><description><![CDATA[ROI in year one was on the table, and they said &#8220;No&#8221;!]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/why-reimagine</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/why-reimagine</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Nov 2025 13:04:31 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic" width="1456" height="971" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:362098,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/heic&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://reimaginedindustries.substack.com/i/178339363?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!192h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff14bea24-d50f-46b2-8599-42336ff34eb7_1536x1024.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><blockquote><blockquote><p>ROI in year one was on the table, and they said &#8220;No&#8221;!</p></blockquote></blockquote><p>Not because the technology couldn&#8217;t deliver. But because nobody wanted to enforce consistency across an ecosystem of external partners. So Instead of fixing the upstream problem, months were spent trying to code around a problem that didn&#8217;t need to exist.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>This was <strong>2017</strong>.</em></p><p><em>The pattern hasn&#8217;t changed, it&#8217;s just got more expensive.</em></p></div><h2>When automation meets reality</h2><p>I was working for a global consultancy on one of its major public-sector accounts. Our task was to automate a core process, the kind of initiative that looks simple on paper, but rarely is.</p><p>Technically, we could have automated 60-70% of it and delivered returns inside twelve months. But the problem wasn&#8217;t technical. It was upstream dependencies spread across an ecosystem of external partners who each interpreted the same &#8220;standard&#8221; process differently.</p><p>The central organisation could see the inefficiency but wouldn&#8217;t enforce alignment. So the project spent months and significant budget trying to automate around inconsistency that could have been eliminated with a handful of difficult conversations.</p><p>This is what Gartner now documents as the <em>&#8220;10 ancillary, hidden costs&#8221;</em> problem: organisations budget for the technology, but not for the ecosystem coordination it exposes.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>The &#8220;$1.9 million AI deployment&#8220; quickly becomes something far larger and more complex because automation doesn&#8217;t hide disorder, it reveals it.</em></p></div><h2>What the travel industry taught me</h2><p>I saw the same pattern in 2014, leading a redesign for an online travel provider.</p><p>This wasn&#8217;t even AI. It was a pricing engine rebuilt from first principles so they could onboard new hotel chains in days instead of months, and handle special rates and non-standard pricing as it arrived.</p><p>They had competitive rates from hotels, including special offers and non-standard pricing models that could&#8217;ve won them business. But their old system couldn&#8217;t handle the variety, so they just threw it away. All of it.</p><p>10% revenue loss. Every year. Not because competitors had better deals, but because they couldn&#8217;t surface what they already had fast enough.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>We built the new engine in a month. It sat unused for two years.</em></p></div><p>The technology worked. Leadership wanted it. But on the ground, people had built careers around the old platform. It defined their expertise, their status, their value to the organisation.</p><p>The resistance wasn&#8217;t about feasibility, it was about fear. Fear of redundancy. Fear of losing what had once made them important.</p><p>This maps directly to what Gartner found:</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>74% of CFOs report productivity gains from AI, but only 5% have managed to cut costs and just 6% saw any revenue uplift.</em></p></div><p>The technology delivers capability, but translating that into business value requires confronting how work, power, and incentives are structured, and most organisations stop short.</p><h2>The pattern</h2><p>This keeps repeating.</p><p>Organisations say they want transformation, then stop short of confronting what it actually requires. AI is just the latest chapter. When systems, incentives, and power structures are built around the past, new technology doesn&#8217;t fix the problem, it exposes it in sharper detail.</p><p>That&#8217;s when leaders face the real test: redesign how value flows, or just automate faster and hope for the best.</p><h2>What it actually takes</h2><p>The problem isn&#8217;t technical. It never was.</p><p>It starts with making the cost of inaction impossible to ignore, not through another deck, but by showing executives exactly what staying still is worth. Then you pull the conversation out of IT entirely, because technology teams were never going to fix ecosystem dynamics or boardroom misalignment.</p><p>This requires senior leaders willing to sit across the table from each other first, before they ever talk to partners. If the exec team can&#8217;t align on what problem they&#8217;re actually solving, external coordination is a fantasy.</p><p>Once internal incentives line up, then you can find the levers that move partners. Not mandate. Not compliance theatre. The actual incentives that make alignment worth their while.</p><p>And you have to help people see that their value isn&#8217;t locked into the old system, it&#8217;s in being the ones with enough context to architect what comes next.</p><p>Reimagining isn&#8217;t about fixing tech or what&#8217;s just inside your walls. It&#8217;s about redesigning how value flows through the ecosystem and how people create value within it. That means someone has to own the conversations, internal and external, that technology can&#8217;t solve.</p><h2>Reimagining: The discipline</h2><p>That&#8217;s what &#8220;reimagining&#8221; really means. It&#8217;s not a slogan. It&#8217;s a discipline.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>[It&#8217;s] the willingness to ask which barriers are real and which are just comfortable habits dressed as constraints. Then it&#8217;s about designing the right sequence, connecting the pieces that matter, step by step, so small shifts compound into momentum.</em></p></div><p>When you take this approach, you win either way. Even if you&#8217;re skeptical about AI, you end up with cleaner operations and teams that spend time creating value instead of managing workarounds. AI just becomes the accelerant on top.</p><p>But if you&#8217;re all-in on AI, this gives you the foundation where intelligence can actually compound. Because data, process, and people already move in the same direction.</p><p>Reimagining isn&#8217;t about a single breakthrough. It&#8217;s the compounding effect of design, discipline, and momentum working together over time.</p><p>The question isn&#8217;t whether your organisation can change.</p><p>It&#8217;s whether you&#8217;re willing to see clearly what you&#8217;ve stopped questioning, and start there.</p><p><strong>If you&#8217;re unclear on the cost of inaction, reply to this email and let&#8217;s talk</strong></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Aggregator’s Dilemma]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why AI That Helps Humans Search Better Leaves You Unprepared for Agents That Don&#8217;t Search at All]]></description><link>https://www.markstrefford.com/p/the-aggregators-dilemma</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.markstrefford.com/p/the-aggregators-dilemma</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Strefford]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Nov 2025 13:03:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic" width="1456" height="819" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BBzm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe48ef8cc-2f3a-4baf-b1bc-e60aaf882f26_1920x1080.heic 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>I&#8217;ve been thinking about what happens to aggregator businesses when AI agents become the primary way transactions get executed.</p><p>Not AI helping humans search better. That&#8217;s happening already and every aggregator is investing in it. I mean when the AI doesn&#8217;t just assist, but actually executes: searches, evaluates, negotiates, and completes transactions on behalf of humans, without the human clicking through your interface.</p><p>This isn&#8217;t theoretical. Perplexity bypasses traditional search. OpenAI is building browser agents and an agent marketplace. Anthropic&#8217;s Model Context Protocol lets agents discover and use services programmatically. The infrastructure is being built right now.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>The conclusion I keep coming back to: <br>Your suppliers could become your competitors for agent traffic.</em></p></div><p>For twenty years, aggregators have succeeded by being the search layer between supply and demand. Property portals. Job boards. Comparison sites. Energy switchers. Travel booking platforms. Insurance aggregators. The pattern was always the same: fragment the internet, reunify it behind your interface, tax the reunion.</p><p>It worked because humans search like humans. Slowly, visually, clicking through pages whenever they have time. Your value was simple: be where the eyeballs are, make the experience better than visiting dozens of individual websites, charge suppliers for access to those eyeballs.</p><p>But AI agents don&#8217;t search like humans. An agent doesn&#8217;t care about your mobile app or your UX. It doesn&#8217;t get tired. It doesn&#8217;t need you to reunify the internet. It can query 47 energy suppliers, 200 hotels, or 30 insurance providers simultaneously and synthesise the results in seconds.</p><p>If your value proposition is &#8220;we make search easier for humans,&#8221; what happens when search isn&#8217;t the bottleneck any more?</p><h3><strong>Where Aggregators Are Investing Today</strong></h3><p>Major aggregators are making substantial AI investments. Rightmove&#8217;s recent announcement is market leading: &#163;60m over three years focused on consumer innovation, operational transformation, and R&amp;D for new growth.</p><p>Their 2026 allocation of &#163;12m spans:</p><ul><li><p>Consumer experience: &#163;3.5m (conversational search, AI-powered recommendations)</p></li><li><p>App development: &#163;2.1m</p></li><li><p>Operational transformation: &#163;2.0m (automated workflows, AI-powered support)</p></li><li><p>New growth initiatives: &#163;3.1m</p></li><li><p>Support functions: &#163;1.3m</p></li></ul><p>They&#8217;re executing 27 AI initiatives spanning vendor prediction, online valuations, conversational search, and AI-powered styling tools.</p><p>Similar patterns appear across sectors. Energy comparison sites are investing in smart tariff recommendations. Insurance aggregators are deploying quote optimisation engines. The specifics vary, but the pattern is consistent: AI investments focused on improving the human experience.</p><p>These investments make complete sense. Better consumer experiences drive engagement. Operational efficiency improves margins. New revenue streams diversify the business.</p><p>But here&#8217;s what I notice: every investment category is either consumer facing (making the human experience better) or operational (making internal processes more efficient).</p><p>What&#8217;s less evident is infrastructure that lets AI agents transact programmatically. Maybe some aggregators are building this quietly. The visible focus remains on AI-assisted human experiences rather than agent-native infrastructure.</p><h3><strong>Why Aggregators Are Actually Well-Positioned</strong></h3><p>Here&#8217;s the counterintuitive bit: aggregators could be even more valuable in agentic economies than they are today. But only if they build the right infrastructure.</p><h4>Platform intelligence compounds with transaction volume</h4><p>When transactions flow through your platform, you accumulate intelligence that makes every subsequent transaction better.</p><p>For example, property platforms learn timing patterns (Bristol properties: 6 weeks offer to completion; London: 12 weeks), pricing signals (suburban asking prices negotiate 8%; city apartments rarely discount beyond 3%), workflow optimisation (digital-first conveyancers complete 40% faster).</p><p>Energy platforms understand consumption patterns by property type, seasonal switching windows, supplier reliability scores, optimal timing to avoid exit fees.</p><p>Travel platforms know route-specific pricing patterns, hotel cancellation behaviours, optimal booking windows, supplier service levels.</p><p>Insurance platforms track risk assessment refinements, claims processing speeds by provider, renewal negotiation leverage points.</p><p>This intelligence gets encoded in your API responses, search rankings, and workflow suggestions.</p><p>When an agent queries your platform, whether it&#8217;s a cloud-based service like ChatGPT or a local open-source model running on someone&#8217;s phone, it benefits from that accumulated intelligence.</p><h4><strong>Example: Smart platform vs basic API</strong></h4><p>Agent query: &#8220;Find 3-bed properties in Bristol, &#163;400-500k, schedule viewings this week&#8221;</p><p>A basic API returns:</p><p><code>{</code></p><p><code>&#8220;properties&#8221;: [...]</code></p><p><code>}</code></p><p>An intelligent platform returns:</p><p><code>{</code></p><p><code>&#8220;properties&#8221;: [...],</code></p><p><code>&#8220;metadata&#8221;: {</code></p><p><code>&#8220;typical_offer_to_completion&#8221;: &#8220;6 weeks&#8221;,</code></p><p><code>&#8220;price_negotiation_range&#8221;: &#8220;6-10%&#8221;,</code></p><p><code>&#8220;optimal_viewing_times&#8221;: [&#8221;Tue 2-4pm&#8221;, &#8220;Sat 10am-12pm&#8221;],</code></p><p><code>&#8220;fast_response_agents&#8221;: true,</code></p><p><code>&#8220;typical_documents_required&#8221;: [...]</code></p><p><code>}</code></p><p><code>}</code></p><p>The same pattern applies across sectors:</p><p>Energy switching: Not just tariff rates, but scenario modelling (if you charge your EV at night it looks like this, if you install solar it looks like that), supplier switching reliability (how often switches fail, how long they actually take), exit fee timing windows.</p><p>Travel booking: Not just availability, but preference-based filtering (you stayed in boutique hotels in Barcelona and Berlin, here&#8217;s similar in Lyon), cross-platform learning (your preferences travel with you, not locked in one booking site), contextual intelligence (you always book window seats, you avoid properties near nightlife).</p><p>Insurance quotes: Not just premiums, but claims processing reputation, renewal leverage points, coverage gap analysis.</p><p>The agent using your platform completes transactions faster with better outcomes because your platform is smarter, regardless of whether the agent itself is sophisticated or basic.</p><p>Your competitors can copy your API structure. They can&#8217;t copy the transaction intelligence that makes your responses valuable.</p><h4><strong>Small players won&#8217;t build this themselves</strong></h4><p>Individual suppliers (estate agents, energy retailers, hotels, insurance providers) could theoretically build agent-readable infrastructure themselves. In practice, they won&#8217;t.</p><p>Because it&#8217;s infrastructure, not differentiation. A local estate agent doesn&#8217;t win by having better API protocols than the agent down the street. They win on properties, service, and local knowledge. A small energy supplier doesn&#8217;t differentiate on API design; they differentiate on tariff innovation or customer service.</p><p>That&#8217;s your opportunity: become the shared infrastructure layer that small players plug into. Just like they use Stripe instead of building payment processing, they&#8217;ll use your protocols instead of building their own.</p><h4><strong>You can shape the protocol while it&#8217;s still forming</strong></h4><p>In open markets, protocols eventually commoditise. But the first mover gets to shape what gets standardised.</p><p>If you define the property listing schema, you ensure it includes fields you already have (transaction history, verification status, pricing benchmarks) that smaller players don&#8217;t. If you define the energy switching protocol, you embed the consumption patterns and supplier reliability data you&#8217;ve accumulated. If you define the insurance quote schema, you include the claims processing metrics and coverage analysis you&#8217;ve built.</p><p>By the time competitors catch up, you&#8217;ve already captured the transaction graph that makes those fields valuable.</p><p>You don&#8217;t need to own the standard. You need to shape it before someone else does.</p><h3><strong>What Infrastructure the Agentic Economy Actually Needs</strong></h3><p>The agentic economy requires six foundational infrastructure pillars to function. These aren&#8217;t aggregator-specific. They&#8217;re universal requirements for any market where AI agents transact autonomously.</p><p>Think of them like HTTPS and payment gateways for e-commerce. Not optional, not differentiating on their own, just foundational.</p><p>The six pillars:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Discoverability</strong> &#8211; How agents find and understand what&#8217;s available (structured schemas, multimodal search APIs, machine-readable formats)</p></li><li><p><strong>Trust &amp; Verification</strong> &#8211; How agents validate legitimacy and track records (verifiable credentials, queryable transaction history, third-party verification hooks)</p></li><li><p><strong>Payments &amp; Settlement</strong> &#8211; How value exchanges hands (embedded payment rails, escrow, dispute resolution, multi-party settlement)</p></li><li><p><strong>Orchestration</strong> &#8211; How multi-party workflows execute (Model Context Protocol for tool integration, workflow state persistence, agent-to-agent messaging, parallel coordination)</p></li><li><p><strong>Attribution</strong> &#8211; How contributions get recognised when multiple agents participate (explicit attribution rules, contribution tracking, flexible compensation models)</p></li><li><p><strong>Privacy &amp; Consent</strong> &#8211; How user preferences are maintained when agents act autonomously (preference APIs, consent tokens, data minimisation, revocation mechanisms)</p></li></ol><p>I&#8217;m not going to detail each pillar here. That&#8217;s a separate piece. But the key point: <strong>these need to exist for agentic economies to function at all.</strong></p><p>Someone will build them. The question is who.</p><h3><strong>Why Aggregators Are Natural Infrastructure Providers</strong></h3><p>You&#8217;re uniquely positioned to build these pillars for your vertical because you&#8217;re already the transaction intermediary. You have structural advantages that make you the natural provider:</p><p><strong>Transaction volume:</strong> You process enough transactions to identify patterns and build intelligence that individual suppliers can&#8217;t match. One major property aggregator processes hundreds of millions of listed items and generates billions of consumer signals annually. That data density creates platform effects. Every transaction makes the platform smarter for the next agent.</p><p><strong>Supplier relationships:</strong> You already have commercial relationships with suppliers in your sector. Adding API protocols to existing partnerships is easier than building those relationships from scratch. Small suppliers trust you because you&#8217;re already embedded in their operations.</p><p><strong>Trust graph:</strong> You&#8217;ve accumulated reputation data through repeated transactions. Agents need that trust layer. They can&#8217;t independently verify every supplier. Your platform becomes the verification mechanism agents rely on.</p><p><strong>Capital to invest:</strong> Building these pillars requires upfront investment before revenue materialises. You have the balance sheet and cash flow to fund infrastructure development. Startups building agent-first from scratch don&#8217;t have that luxury.</p><p><strong>Domain intelligence:</strong> Property aggregators understand conveyancing workflows, stamp duty calculations, and local market dynamics. Energy aggregators understand consumption patterns, switching windows, and regulatory constraints. Travel platforms understand route economics and supplier behaviours. That domain knowledge gets encoded in your APIs and makes them genuinely useful to agents rather than just data pipes.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>But should you build this infrastructure yourselves, or partner with specialists?</em></p></div><p>eBay&#8217;s acquisition of PayPal (2002) wasn&#8217;t about owning payments infrastructure for its own sake. It was about controlling the trust and friction points that affected transaction completion. The eventual spin-out (2015) was financial engineering, not a statement that payments integration was strategically worthless. Seamless, trusted payments were core to eBay&#8217;s marketplace success.</p><p>The parallel question for aggregators: is transaction intelligence infrastructure you control, or a commodity service you consume? I&#8217;d argue it&#8217;s different from payments. Payments are horizontal infrastructure. The same mechanics work across every marketplace. Transaction intelligence is vertical, deeply specific to your domain, your suppliers, your transaction patterns.</p><p>If you don&#8217;t build these pillars, someone else will. But they&#8217;ll be starting from scratch while you&#8217;re already processing transactions and accumulating the intelligence that makes the infrastructure valuable.</p><h3><strong>The Competitive Clock</strong></h3><p>You&#8217;re not the only one who could build this. Your competitors see the same future. So do horizontal platforms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) that might add vertical depth. So do startups building agent-first from scratch.</p><p>OpenAI&#8217;s emerging agent marketplace, Anthropic&#8217;s Model Context Protocol (MCP) for tool integration, Perplexity&#8217;s direct answer engines. These aren&#8217;t hypothetical. The infrastructure for agents to discover and use services is being built right now. The question is whether aggregators become preferred service providers in these marketplaces or get bypassed entirely.</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>What&#8217;s different about agentic competition:</em></p><p><em><strong>Accumulated transaction intelligence might be the only moat that matters.</strong></em></p></div><p>An agent that&#8217;s completed 500 property transactions through your platform knows which estate agents are reliable, what pricing patterns mean, what workflows succeed. An agent that&#8217;s switched energy suppliers 1,000 times through your platform knows which suppliers process switches fastest, which have hidden fees, which offer the best customer service.</p><p>Even if a competitor launches an identical protocol, agents would have to relearn everything from scratch.</p><p>But that intelligence only accumulates if you&#8217;re processing transactions, not just facilitating search.</p><p>Brand still matters. Supplier relationships still matter. But in agentic economies where agents make decisions based on structured data and verified track records, those legacy advantages weaken. Transaction intelligence becomes disproportionately important.</p><p>The race isn&#8217;t &#8220;who builds the prettiest agent interface.&#8221; It&#8217;s &#8220;who captures the transaction graph first.&#8221;</p><h3><strong>Consumer AI AND Agent Infrastructure</strong></h3><p>The investments aggregators are making in consumer-facing AI are necessary and valuable. Conversational search, personalised recommendations, automated operations. All good moves.</p><p>Many aggregators offer search interfaces that are evolutions of 10-year-old capabilities. That work needs doing. Better search drives engagement. Operational efficiency improves margins.</p><p>But these investments create an adjacent question: as AI gets better at helping humans, when does the &#8216;assistant&#8217; become an &#8216;agent&#8217; that transacts autonomously? And when that happens, what infrastructure needs to exist?</p><p>This isn&#8217;t either/or. Not &#8220;consumer AI instead of agent infrastructure.&#8221;</p><div class="pullquote"><p><em>It&#8217;s both/and.</em></p></div><p>You need consumer-facing AI to deepen engagement with humans using your platform today.</p><p>AND you need agent-facing infrastructure to ensure agents transacting on behalf of humans use your platform tomorrow.</p><p>The urgency isn&#8217;t that you&#8217;re behind. It&#8217;s that you&#8217;re investing heavily NOW in AI, and agent infrastructure should be a parallel workstream, not a sequential one.</p><p>Here&#8217;s the trap: fixing your search interface is necessary work. But if that&#8217;s ALL you&#8217;re doing, you&#8217;re still building for yesterday&#8217;s transaction model. You&#8217;re optimising for human search when the game is shifting to agent transactions.</p><p>Building consumer AI first, then agent infrastructure later, means you miss the window to shape the protocol. By the time you&#8217;re ready, the standards may already be set, and not to your advantage.</p><p>This is the difference between fixing and reimagining. Fixes keep you competitive in the current model. Reimagining prepares you for the next one.</p><h3><strong>What Happens Next</strong></h3><p>I&#8217;m publishing this openly because I think the pattern is important and time-sensitive. If you&#8217;re running an aggregator and this resonates, take it and run with it.</p><p>The six infrastructure pillars deserve detailed exploration. That&#8217;s the next piece. But the strategic insight stands alone: aggregators are investing heavily in AI to improve human experiences while the real transformation is agents transacting autonomously.</p><p>The organisations that see this early and build agent-native infrastructure won&#8217;t just survive the transition. They&#8217;ll be more valuable than they are today.</p><p>The ones that don&#8217;t will become legacy search layers in a world where search isn&#8217;t the bottleneck any more.</p><div><hr></div><p>Mark Strefford helps organisations reimagine their business architecture for AI-enabled economies. He focuses on competitive economics and ecosystem implications, not just AI deployment. To schedule a confidential 1-to-1 session, <a href="https://calendly.com/markstrefford/30min?month=2025-11">book here</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>